WHY A TED CRUZ PRESIDENTIAL RUN COULD BE GOOD FOR THE GOP (AND BAD FOR THE COUNTRY)

National Review's Robert Costa tells us, breathlessly, that Senator Ted Cruz is seriously thinking about running for president:

... "If you don’t think this is real, then you're not paying attention," says a Republican insider. "Cruz already has grassroots on his side, and in this climate, that's all he may need."

"There's not a lot of hesitation there," adds a Cruz donor who has known the Texan for decades. "He's fearless." ...

"You bet, he's on my radar," says Chad Connelly, the chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party. "Conservatives think he's a rock star. I hear about him from everybody." ...

He has been out front on each issue, brashly battling Democrats and, if need be, his fellow Republicans. "He's the purest of the young conservative senators -- that's how we see him," says a consultant who works for a leading conservative group.

It's obvious that Cruz is a guy with an ego the size of a small galaxy, and it's obvious that he thinks the sun of moral righteousness shines out of his ass. I absolutely believe he'll run.

But even Robert Costa admits that Cruz doesn't have much of an organization. And we know from Jennifer Rubin that he's alienating fellow Republicans, herself included. As a politician, in McLuhanesque terms, he's too "hot." He's just the kind of crazy-base darling who looks as if he might steal the nomination from the GOP establishment, but never does.

And that's especially true because we know Rand Paul is itching to run. If they both run, right there you've got a big split in the crazy-base vote. And maybe base hero Scott Walker will run. And Rick Santorum could run again. And thus the base vote gets subdivided. (And I'm still betting Allen West will run.)

That's what always seems to happen in GOP primary season, right? It looks as if the crazies might nominate a basehead, but then a bunch of base-friendly candidates split the base vote and someone presentable and establishment-friendly emerges from the pack -- McCain in '08, Romney in '12, arguably even Bush in '00.

So a Cruz candidacy will help ensure that, once again, the GOP standard-bearer in a presidential year is a guy who doesn't really represent the true GOP. It'll be someone Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio (sorry, he used to be a tea party guy, but no true teabagger would even flirt with the immigration reform crowd). And once again the press will be able to put on blinders and pretend that Republicans aren't dangerously crazy.

And who knows? Maybe 2016's presentable standard-bearer will figure out what McCain and Romney couldn't, which is how to persuade the centrists that you're sane while reassuring the base that you're crazy. It's hard, but I fear it's not impossible.